Guilherme Pat vs Steven Asplund
5:00 PM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Steven Asplundby KO/TKO60% to win · closed -270
Result: Steven Asplund by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Steven Asplund
69% -224
Guilherme Pat
31% +224
How it ends
Asplund by KO/TKO
30.4%
fair +229
Asplund by SUB
4.6%
fair +2052
Asplund by DEC
34.2%
fair +193
Pat by KO/TKO
10.6%
fair +845
Pat by SUB
4.1%
fair +2339
Pat by DEC
16.2%
fair +519
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R126.8%fair +273
Ends in R214.7%fair +578
Ends in R38.1%fair +1133
Goes distance50.3%fair -101
How this fight plays out
The model makes Asplund a solid 69% favorite. On the feet, Asplund sets the tempo — 6.9 significant strikes a minute to 3.1 — so Pat needs moments, not volume. Asplund's most likely path is on the scorecards (34%), and the fight goes the distance 50% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.