Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Thomas Petersen vs Valter Walker

9:00 AM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Valter Walkerby KO/TKO62% to win · closed -170
Result: Valter Walker by SUB in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Valter Walker
78% -353
Thomas Petersen
22% +353
How it ends
Walker by KO/TKO
16.3%
fair +513
Walker by SUB
53.6%
fair -115
Walker by DEC
8.0%
fair +1146
Petersen by KO/TKO
3.8%
fair +2537
Petersen by SUB
1.4%
fair +6839
Petersen by DEC
16.8%
fair +494

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R140.6%fair +147
Ends in R222.3%fair +348
Ends in R312.3%fair +715
Goes distance24.9%fair +302
How this fight plays out

The model makes Walker a clear 78% favorite. Striking volume is near even (2.8 vs 3.2 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Walker is most dangerous early — 6 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Walker's most likely path is by submission (54%), and the fight goes the distance 25% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.