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Steven Koslow vs Chad Anheliger

5:00 PM ET· scheduled

Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.

Model pick

Steven Koslowby SUB~ Round 1

64% to win · 59% that it’s by SUB · 76% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1

Model fair price -175

Probetrics fight model

Chad Anheliger

36% +175

Steven Koslow

64% -175

How it ends

Anheliger by KO/TKO

14.0%

fair +613

Anheliger by SUB

2.2%

fair +4547

Anheliger by DEC

20.2%

fair +394

Koslow by KO/TKO

1.3%

fair +7763

Koslow by SUB

58.8%

fair -143

Koslow by DEC

3.5%

fair +2739

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends

Ends in R141.2%fair +143

Ends in R222.6%fair +342

Ends in R312.4%fair +703

Goes distance23.8%fair +321

How this fight plays out

The model makes Koslow a solid 64% favorite. Expect Koslow to chase the takedown (3.3/15 min at 56%) while Anheliger tries to keep it standing behind 37% takedown defense. Koslow is most dangerous early — 6 of 6 tracked wins ended in the first round. Koslow's most likely path is by submission (59%), and the fight goes the distance 24% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Koslow: 54% of Anheliger's wins come by knockout and 100% of Koslow's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.