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Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026

Fight data

Model pick: Steven Koslow (61%), locked before the start; Steven Koslow won (graded a hit).

Final5:00 PM ETUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Bantamweight
Chad Anheliger13-9
Steven Koslow7-1

The model's call

Locked before the fight
61%Steven Koslowby submission✓ Hit

Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.

Result
Steven Koslow
By submission in round 3
Closing price
-165
Right at this confidence
66%
Won 35 of 53 called at 60–70%

How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.

prices before the fightModel vs market

The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.

KO/TKOSUBDEC
Koslow
Anheliger

Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.

Fight clock · still going
15% reach the final bell (books 36%)
0255075100R1R2R3o1.5o2.5dist.542915Ended R3 4:31

Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 1.5 rounds 62% · over 2.5 rounds 44% · goes the distance 39%.

Their tracked fights before this one
History
Koslow0 of 7 to the judges

6-1 in the last 7. 6 of 6 wins inside the distance; the loss was a finish.

  • LKO/TKO · R3vs Cameron SaaimanDec 2022
  • WSubmission · R1Combat Night: Orlando 2022Jul 2022
  • WSubmission · R1Combat Night Pro: Jacksonville 2021Nov 2021
  • WSubmission · R1Combat Night Pro 20Mar 2021
  • WSubmission · R1Combat Night: Combat Night Pro 18Mar 2020
Anheliger5 of 10 to the judges

7-3 in the last 10. 4 of 7 wins inside the distance; 1 of 3 losses were finishes.

  • LDecisionvs Cody GibsonNov 2024
  • WDecisionUFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. TyburaMar 2024
  • LSubmission · R3vs Jose JohnsonNov 2023
  • LDecisionvs AlatengheiliSep 2022
  • WKO/TKO · R3UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. HillFeb 2022

5 of 17 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 15% that it goes the distance, the books 36%. History, not a forecast.

How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.

No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Koslow clear at 75%. Expect Koslow to chase the takedown (3.3/15 min at 56%) while Anheliger tries to keep it standing behind 37% takedown defense. Koslow is most dangerous early — 6 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Koslow's most likely path is by submission (70%), and the fight goes the distance 15% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Koslow: 54% of Anheliger's wins come by knockout and 100% of Koslow's losses have come the same way.

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Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.