Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Stewart Nicoll vs Alden Coria

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Alden Coriaby DEC79% to win · closed -609
Result: Alden Coria by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Alden Coria
81% -415
Stewart Nicoll
19% +415
How it ends
Coria by KO/TKO
27.8%
fair +259
Coria by SUB
11.5%
fair +766
Coria by DEC
41.2%
fair +143
Nicoll by KO/TKO
7.5%
fair +1235
Nicoll by SUB
2.0%
fair +4847
Nicoll by DEC
9.9%
fair +909

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R126.4%fair +279
Ends in R214.5%fair +589
Ends in R38.0%fair +1152
Goes distance51.1%fair -104
How this fight plays out

The model makes Coria a clear 81% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.1 vs 3.3 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Nicoll is most dangerous early — 5 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Coria's most likely path is on the scorecards (41%), and the fight goes the distance 51% of the time. The live danger for Coria: Nicoll finishes 38% of wins by submission and Coria has been submitted in 33% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.