Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Manon Fiorotby DEC59% to win · closed -270
Result: Alexa Grasso by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Alexa Grasso
46% +120
Manon Fiorot
54% -120
How it ends
Grasso by KO/TKO
8.1%
fair +1140
Grasso by SUB
7.0%
fair +1327
Grasso by DEC
30.5%
fair +228
Fiorot by KO/TKO
8.1%
fair +1127
Fiorot by SUB
3.6%
fair +2641
Fiorot by DEC
42.7%
fair +134

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R114.5%fair +589
Ends in R28.0%fair +1154
Ends in R34.4%fair +2179
Goes distance73.1%fair -272
How this fight plays out

The model makes Fiorot a narrow 54% favorite. On the feet, Fiorot sets the tempo — 5.5 significant strikes a minute to 4.0 — so Grasso needs moments, not volume. Grasso tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Fiorot's most likely path is on the scorecards (43%), and the fight goes the distance 73% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.