Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Cristian Perez vs Logan Paxton

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Cristian Perezby KO/TKO59% to win · closed -260
Result: Cristian Perez by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Logan Paxton
44% +125
Cristian Perez
56% -125
How it ends
Paxton by KO/TKO
35.3%
fair +183
Paxton by SUB
2.7%
fair +3669
Paxton by DEC
6.4%
fair +1454
Perez by KO/TKO
42.3%
fair +136
Perez by SUB
6.4%
fair +1461
Perez by DEC
6.8%
fair +1362

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R146.8%fair +114
Ends in R225.7%fair +288
Ends in R314.2%fair +606
Goes distance13.3%fair +653
How this fight plays out

The model makes Perez a narrow 56% favorite. Perez is most dangerous early — 5 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Perez's most likely path is by KO/TKO (42%), and the fight goes the distance 13% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Perez: 70% of Paxton's wins come by knockout and 50% of Perez's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.