Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Luis Hernandez vs Hugo Guillon

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Luis Hernandezby KO/TKO52% to win · closed +136
Result: Luis Hernandez by SUB in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Hugo Guillon
36% +182
Luis Hernandez
64% -182
How it ends
Guillon by KO/TKO
15.0%
fair +565
Guillon by SUB
9.3%
fair +973
Guillon by DEC
11.2%
fair +796
Hernandez by KO/TKO
24.6%
fair +306
Hernandez by SUB
33.4%
fair +199
Hernandez by DEC
6.4%
fair +1451

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R144.5%fair +125
Ends in R224.5%fair +309
Ends in R313.5%fair +643
Goes distance17.6%fair +468
How this fight plays out

The model makes Hernandez a solid 64% favorite. Expect Hernandez to chase the takedown (1.7/15 min at 33%) while Guillon tries to keep it standing. Hernandez is most dangerous early — 5 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Hernandez's most likely path is by submission (33%), and the fight goes the distance 18% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.