Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Robert Valentin vs Duško Todorović

1:00 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Duško Todorovićby KO/TKO56% to win · closed +150
Result: Robert Valentin by SUB in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Duško Todorović
48% +108
Robert Valentin
52% -108
How it ends
Todorović by KO/TKO
25.2%
fair +296
Todorović by SUB
16.8%
fair +496
Todorović by DEC
6.0%
fair +1563
Valentin by KO/TKO
9.6%
fair +946
Valentin by SUB
29.3%
fair +241
Valentin by DEC
13.1%
fair +665

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R143.7%fair +129
Ends in R224.0%fair +316
Ends in R313.2%fair +657
Goes distance19.1%fair +424
How this fight plays out

The model makes Valentin a narrow 52% favorite. Todorović will out-work him on volume (4.5 vs 2.2/min) — Valentin's route is a finish, not a points battle. Valentin is most dangerous early — 5 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Valentin's most likely path is by submission (29%), and the fight goes the distance 19% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Valentin: 62% of Todorović's wins come by knockout and 50% of Valentin's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.