Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Mike Malottby KO/TKO~ Round 2
57% to win · 30% that it’s by KO/TKO · 74% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 2
Model fair price -133
Longest single script: Buckley by KO/TKO(37.2%) — Malott's win chances split across methods, so the other side's one likeliest path outscores each of theirs.The pick above is the predicted winner and their most likely method. But across all six winner-and-method combos, this one single outcome carries the most probability — worth a look on method-of-victory markets, where it usually pays plus-money.
Probetrics fight model
Mike Malott
57% -133
Joaquin Buckley
43% +133
How it ends
Malott by KO/TKO
30.0%
fair +234
Malott by SUB
5.1%
fair +1847
Malott by DEC
21.9%
fair +356
Buckley by KO/TKO
37.2%
fair +169
Buckley by SUB
1.4%
fair +6932
Buckley by DEC
4.3%
fair +2228
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R133.9%fair +195
Ends in R218.7%fair +436
Ends in R310.3%fair +875
Ends in R47.1%fair +1318
Ends in R53.9%fair +2478
Goes distance26.2%fair +281
How this fight plays out
The model makes Malott a narrow 57% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.0 vs 3.5 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Malott is most dangerous early — 5 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Malott's most likely path is by KO/TKO (30%), and the fight goes the distance 26% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Malott: 71% of Buckley's wins come by knockout and 100% of Malott's losses have come the same way.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
