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Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026

Fight data

Model pick: Mike Malott (54%), locked before the start; Mike Malott won (graded a hit).

Final8:00 PM ETUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Welterweight
Mike Malott15-2-1#9
Joaquin Buckley21-9#13

The model's call

Locked before the fight
54%Mike Malottby KO/TKO✓ Hit

Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.

Result
Mike Malott
By KO/TKO in round 2
Closing price
-125
Right at this confidence
62%
Won 41 of 66 called at 50–60%

How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.

prices before the fightModel vs market

The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.

KO/TKOSUBDEC
Buckley
Malott

Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.

Fight clock · still going
20% reach the final bell (books 37%)
0255075100R1R2R3R4R5o3.5dist.6343312420Ended R2 2:32

Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 3.5 rounds 51% · goes the distance 38%.

Their tracked fights before this one
History
Buckley5 of 10 to the judges

6-4 in the last 10. 4 of 6 wins inside the distance; 1 of 4 losses were finishes.

  • LDecisionvs Sean BradyMay 2026
  • LDecisionvs Kamaru UsmanJun 2025
  • WKO/TKO · R3UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. BuckleyDec 2024
  • WKO/TKO · R3vs Stephen ThompsonOct 2024
  • WDecisionvs Nursulton RuziboevMay 2024
Malott2 of 10 to the judges

9-1 in the last 10. 7 of 9 wins inside the distance; the loss was a finish.

  • WKO/TKO · R3vs Gilbert BurnsApr 2026
  • WDecisionvs Kevin HollandOct 2025
  • WKO/TKO · R2vs Charles RadtkeMay 2025
  • WDecisionUFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. AlbaziNov 2024
  • LKO/TKO · R3vs Neil MagnyJan 2024

7 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 20% that it goes the distance, the books 37%. Most of those were 3-round fights; this one is scheduled for 5. History, not a forecast.

How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.

No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Malott solid at 61%. Striking volume is near even (4.0 vs 3.5 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Malott is most dangerous early — 5 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Malott's most likely path is by KO/TKO (43%), and the fight goes the distance 20% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Malott: 71% of Buckley's wins come by knockout and 100% of Malott's losses have come the same way.

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Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.