Cameron Nelson vs Ding Meng
3:00 AM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Cameron Nelsonby DEC58% to win · closed +125
Result: Cameron Nelson by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Ding Meng
39% +159
Cameron Nelson
61% -159
How it ends
Meng by KO/TKO
27.6%
fair +263
Meng by SUB
1.1%
fair +8882
Meng by DEC
9.9%
fair +911
Nelson by KO/TKO
17.8%
fair +463
Nelson by SUB
13.7%
fair +631
Nelson by DEC
30.0%
fair +234
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R132.5%fair +208
Ends in R217.9%fair +460
Ends in R39.8%fair +918
Goes distance39.9%fair +151
How this fight plays out
The model makes Nelson a solid 61% favorite. Nelson's most likely path is on the scorecards (30%), and the fight goes the distance 40% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.