Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
8:00 PM ET· scheduledBooks price Uulu at 29% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +10.9% on UuluEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Osmanli a solid 61% favorite, cooler than the market's 71% — the value sits with Uulu. Osmanli's most likely path is on the scorecards (31%), and the fight goes the distance 38% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Osmanli: Uulu finishes 60% of wins by submission and Osmanli has been submitted in 100% of losses.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.