Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Billy Quarantillo vs Diego Ferreira

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Billy Quarantilloby KO/TKO55% to win
Result: Diego Ferreira by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Diego Ferreira
54% -116
Billy Quarantillo
46% +116
How it ends
Ferreira by KO/TKO
31.1%
fair +222
Ferreira by SUB
2.3%
fair +4328
Ferreira by DEC
20.4%
fair +391
Quarantillo by KO/TKO
25.0%
fair +299
Quarantillo by SUB
1.5%
fair +6618
Quarantillo by DEC
19.8%
fair +406

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R132.3%fair +209
Ends in R217.8%fair +463
Ends in R39.8%fair +923
Goes distance40.1%fair +149
How this fight plays out

The model makes Ferreira a narrow 54% favorite. Quarantillo will out-work him on volume (6.5 vs 5.3/min) — Ferreira's route is a finish, not a points battle. Ferreira's most likely path is by KO/TKO (31%), and the fight goes the distance 40% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.