Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori

4:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Ismail Naurdievby DEC
69% to win · 44% that it’s by DEC · 70% this goes the distance
Model fair price -225
Probetrics fight model
Marvin Vettori
31% +225
Ismail Naurdiev
69% -225
How it ends
Vettori by KO/TKO
3.6%
fair +2707
Vettori by SUB
1.7%
fair +5676
Vettori by DEC
25.5%
fair +293
Naurdiev by KO/TKO
14.9%
fair +573
Naurdiev by SUB
10.1%
fair +893
Naurdiev by DEC
44.3%
fair +126

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R116.3%fair +513
Ends in R29.0%fair +1014
Ends in R34.9%fair +1926
Goes distance69.8%fair -231
How this fight plays out

The model makes Naurdiev a solid 69% favorite. Striking volume is near even (5.0 vs 4.1 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Vettori tends to settle in for the long haul — 11 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Naurdiev's most likely path is on the scorecards (44%), and the fight goes the distance 70% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.