Probetrics — Sports Analytics

JooSang Yoo vs Michael Aswell

7:00 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
JooSang Yooby DEC61% to win · closed -166
Result: Michael Aswell by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Michael Aswell
40% +150
JooSang Yoo
60% -150
How it ends
Aswell by KO/TKO
17.0%
fair +489
Aswell by SUB
2.6%
fair +3725
Aswell by DEC
20.4%
fair +389
Yoo by KO/TKO
18.1%
fair +453
Yoo by SUB
2.9%
fair +3290
Yoo by DEC
38.9%
fair +157

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R121.9%fair +356
Ends in R212.1%fair +729
Ends in R36.6%fair +1407
Goes distance59.4%fair -146
How this fight plays out

The model makes Yoo a solid 60% favorite. Aswell throws more on the feet (6.9 vs 4.8/min), but the model expects Yoo to bank rounds with grappling — 1.0 takedowns and 0.2 positional advances per 15 minutes. Yoo is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Yoo's most likely path is on the scorecards (39%), and the fight goes the distance 59% of the time. The live danger for Yoo: 55% of Aswell's wins come by knockout and 100% of Yoo's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.