Alex Apodaca vs Bella Mir
7:00 PM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Bella Mirby DEC74% to win · closed -3300
Result: Alex Apodaca by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Bella Mir
55% -120
Alex Apodaca
45% +120
How it ends
Mir by KO/TKO
7.7%
fair +1196
Mir by SUB
17.5%
fair +471
Mir by DEC
29.3%
fair +241
Apodaca by KO/TKO
6.4%
fair +1454
Apodaca by SUB
4.7%
fair +2027
Apodaca by DEC
34.3%
fair +191
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R119.6%fair +409
Ends in R210.8%fair +826
Ends in R35.9%fair +1584
Goes distance63.6%fair -175
How this fight plays out
The model makes Mir a narrow 55% favorite. Apodaca tends to settle in for the long haul — 5 of 5 tracked fights reached the judges. Mir's most likely path is on the scorecards (29%), and the fight goes the distance 64% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.