Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026
Fight dataModel pick: Erin Blanchfield (75%), locked before the start; Jasmine Jasudavicius won (graded a miss).
The model's call
Locked before the fightWhere a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.
- Result
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- By decision in round 3
- Closing price
- -325
- Right at this confidence
- 72%
- Won 31 of 43 called at 70–80%
How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.
Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 2.5 rounds 76% · goes the distance 73%.
8-2 in the last 10. 3 of 8 wins inside the distance; 1 of 2 losses were finishes.
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9-1 in the last 10. 4 of 9 wins inside the distance; the loss went to the judges.
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12 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 74% that it goes the distance, the books 68%. History, not a forecast.
How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Blanchfield solid at 58%. On the feet, Blanchfield sets the tempo — 5.1 significant strikes a minute to 3.4 — so Jasudavicius needs moments, not volume. Jasudavicius tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Blanchfield's most likely path is on the scorecards (41%), and the fight goes the distance 74% of the time.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.