Hunter Smith vs Adam Livingston
7:00 PM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Adam Livingstonby DEC53% to win · closed -183
Result: Adam Livingston by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Adam Livingston
52% -110
Hunter Smith
48% +110
How it ends
Livingston by KO/TKO
19.3%
fair +418
Livingston by SUB
6.1%
fair +1537
Livingston by DEC
27.1%
fair +270
Smith by KO/TKO
16.9%
fair +493
Smith by SUB
6.4%
fair +1467
Smith by DEC
24.3%
fair +312
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R126.3%fair +281
Ends in R214.4%fair +592
Ends in R37.9%fair +1158
Goes distance51.3%fair -105
How this fight plays out
The model makes Livingston a narrow 52% favorite. Smith is most dangerous early — 4 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Livingston's most likely path is on the scorecards (27%), and the fight goes the distance 51% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.