Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Nilson Rojas vs Bilal Hasan

6:00 AM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Bilal Hasanby KO/TKO75% to win · closed -699
Result: Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Bilal Hasan
75% -302
Nilson Rojas
25% +302
How it ends
Hasan by KO/TKO
55.9%
fair -127
Hasan by SUB
9.2%
fair +986
Hasan by DEC
10.0%
fair +899
Rojas by KO/TKO
12.0%
fair +735
Rojas by SUB
2.2%
fair +4399
Rojas by DEC
10.7%
fair +838

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R142.8%fair +134
Ends in R223.6%fair +325
Ends in R313.0%fair +672
Goes distance20.7%fair +384
How this fight plays out

The model makes Hasan a clear 75% favorite. Hasan is most dangerous early — 4 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Hasan's most likely path is by KO/TKO (56%), and the fight goes the distance 21% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.