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NHL · Track record

NHL: every call, graded

About this page
Winner picks only: locked before puck drop, graded after the final, misses included. How the model is tested →
NHL games

Last graded

Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.

Locked before the start, graded after
Won–lost
24–19
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
56%
90% range 43–68%
Graded
43
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
25.2
90% range 19.9–30.4
Win rate 56%90% rangeIts probabilities said 59%

Won 24. Its stated probabilities expected 25.2 (90% range 19.9–30.4): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.

Betting favorite on the same 41 priced games: 23–18 (ours 23–18).

Backtest, not in the record: 58.6% of 8,510 games (walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2019–26).

Against the betting favoriteSame games, winners only. The favorite is the side with the shorter no-vig moneyline when the pick was locked.

41 priced games
Our pickon the games that had a price23–18 56%n 41
The betting favoritethe same games, no model23–18 56%n 41
When we picked the favorite23–18 56%n 41
When we took the other sidethe games we disagreed with the market0–0 —none

Every pick here is from the market-anchored era: a priced game's win % is the market's no-vig price. 2 picks have no stored price and sit in none of these rows. Under 30 games a record is too early to read either way. Every pick, one row each →

Expected vs actual winnersThe dashed line is the wins its own probabilities expected, shaded for luck's 90% band. Solid is what happened.

43 picks
Pick 1 · Sep 29Pick 43 · Oct 5
Won 24Expected 25.290% band 19.9–30.4

The solid line ends inside the shaded band: the record is where honest probabilities would put it.

Show as a table
After pickDateWonExpected90% band
5Sep 2923.01.2–4.7
11Oct 156.43.8–9.1
16Oct 189.46.2–12.6
22Oct 3913.09.2–16.7
27Oct 31215.711.5–19.9
32Oct 31518.814.3–23.4
38Oct 42022.017.1–27.0
43Oct 52425.219.9–30.4

When it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.

live and backtest
  • Said 50–55%
    47% won 7 of 1590% range 28–67%backtest 51.0% of 2,884
  • Said 55–60%
    36% won 4 of 1190% range 18–61%backtest 57.3% of 2,455
  • Said 60–65%
    63% won 5 of 8only 8 graded: too few to judgebacktest 63.8% of 1,621
  • Said 65–70%
    100% won 6 of 6only 6 graded: too few to judgebacktest 66% of 996
  • Said 70–100%
    67% won 2 of 3only 3 graded: too few to judgebacktest 75% of 554
The band it statedLive win rate90% rangeBacktest win rate

Live picks, locked before the start. Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2019–26, not in the record. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.

Form and splitsThe same winners record, sliced: the latest ten picks, and home picks against road picks.

streak W1
Last 10
8–2 80%n 10 · 54–93%
Picked home
17–12 59%n 29 · 43–72%
Picked road
7–7 50%n 14 · 30–70%

On the board

75 locked, not yet graded

75 picks are locked and waiting to be graded. Each one appears here, with its result, the moment it is graded.

The open picks, with the side and the probability, are part of Pro. See Pro · The record

Ledger

won 24 of 43
DateGameModel pickResult
Oct 5SJ 0atDAL 5DALhome64%✓ won
Oct 5WPG 3atPIT 2PIThome62%✗ lost
Oct 5OTT 4atBOS 1OTTroad51%✓ won
Oct 5PHI 1atTB 4TBhome66%✓ won
Oct 4VGK 3atVAN 2VGKroad72%✓ won
Oct 4CGY 1atSEA 6SEAhome59%✓ won
Oct 4FLA 2atANA 3FLAroad56%✗ lost
Oct 4UTAH 2atNYR 4NYRhome52%✓ won
Oct 4WPG 3atDET 2WPGroad52%✓ won
Oct 3LA 4atSJ 5SJhome50%✓ won
Oct 3CGY 1atVAN 4VANhome50%✓ won
Oct 3STL 1atCOL 6COLhome72%✓ won
Oct 3DAL 1atNSH 2DALroad56%✗ lost
Oct 3BOS 1atMIN 4MINhome66%✓ won
Oct 3NJ 0atNYI 6NJroad55%✗ lost
Oct 3SEA 1atEDM 3EDMhome65%✓ won
Oct 3UTAH 4atCBJ 1UTAHroad51%✓ won
Oct 3CAR 3atPHI 2CARroad55%✓ won
Oct 3OTT 3atTOR 2TORhome51%✗ lost
Oct 3WSH 1atTB 3TBhome64%✓ won
Oct 3MTL 5atPIT 6MTLroad51%✗ lost
Oct 3CHI 3atBUF 4BUFhome67%✓ won
Oct 2ANA 4atVGK 3VGKhome65%✗ lost
Oct 2STL 4atDAL 0DALhome62%✗ lost
Oct 2BOS 4atWPG 3WPGhome52%✗ lost

Picks grade as each game goes final. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.