Jon Kunneman vs Joe Kropschot
7:00 PM ET· final“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Kropschot a solid 60% favorite. On the feet, Kropschot sets the tempo — 6.0 significant strikes a minute to 4.0 — so Kunneman needs moments, not volume. Kropschot is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Kropschot's most likely path is on the scorecards (28%), and the fight goes the distance 32% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Kropschot: Kunneman finishes 70% of wins by submission and Kropschot has been submitted in 33% of losses.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.