Late replacement — this matchup was made 7 days out— the model prices time since a fighter's last bout, never how long they had to prepare for this one. The books do price it, so treat any gap between us and them on this fight as our blind spot, not their mistake.
Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Loai Abushaarby SUB~ Round 1
55% to win · 20% that it’s by SUB · 65% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1
Model fair price -121
Probetrics fight model
George Staines
45% +121
Loai Abushaar
55% -121
How it ends
Staines by KO/TKO
18.1%
fair +452
Staines by SUB
7.0%
fair +1323
Staines by DEC
20.1%
fair +396
Abushaar by KO/TKO
19.5%
fair +412
Abushaar by SUB
20.3%
fair +392
Abushaar by DEC
14.9%
fair +572
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R135.1%fair +185
Ends in R219.3%fair +418
Ends in R310.6%fair +843
Goes distance35.0%fair +185
How this fight plays out
The model makes Abushaar a narrow 55% favorite. Abushaar is most dangerous early — 6 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Abushaar's most likely path is by submission (20%), and the fight goes the distance 35% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
