Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic

1:00 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Milos Janicicby DEC50% to win · closed +100
Result: Noah Gugnon by SUB in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Milos Janicic
40% +150
Noah Gugnon
60% -150
How it ends
Janicic by KO/TKO
34.6%
fair +189
Janicic by SUB
1.5%
fair +6627
Janicic by DEC
4.0%
fair +2397
Gugnon by KO/TKO
28.9%
fair +246
Gugnon by SUB
16.5%
fair +506
Gugnon by DEC
14.5%
fair +588

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R144.0%fair +127
Ends in R224.2%fair +314
Ends in R313.3%fair +652
Goes distance18.5%fair +439
How this fight plays out

The model makes Gugnon a solid 60% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.2 vs 4.1 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Gugnon is most dangerous early — 7 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Gugnon's most likely path is by KO/TKO (29%), and the fight goes the distance 19% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Gugnon: 58% of Janicic's wins come by knockout and 50% of Gugnon's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.