Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev

9:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Islam Makhachevby DEC59% to win · closed -325
Result: Islam Makhachev by DEC in Round 5 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Islam Makhachev
60% -150
Ian Machado Garry
40% +150
How it ends
Makhachev by KO/TKO
5.0%
fair +1891
Makhachev by SUB
15.7%
fair +536
Makhachev by DEC
39.2%
fair +155
Garry by KO/TKO
5.6%
fair +1675
Garry by SUB
2.0%
fair +4935
Garry by DEC
32.4%
fair +209

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R113.0%fair +667
Ends in R27.2%fair +1294
Ends in R33.9%fair +2435
Ends in R42.7%fair +3587
Ends in R51.5%fair +6603
Goes distance71.6%fair -253
How this fight plays out

The model makes Makhachev a solid 60% favorite. Expect Makhachev to chase the takedown (2.7/15 min at 48%) while Garry tries to keep it standing behind 71% takedown defense. Garry tends to settle in for the long haul — 9 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Makhachev's most likely path is on the scorecards (39%), and the fight goes the distance 72% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.