Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Djorden Santos vs Yousri Belgaroui

2:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Yousri Belgarouiby DEC74% to win · closed -840
Result: Yousri Belgaroui by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Yousri Belgaroui
73% -274
Djorden Santos
27% +274
How it ends
Belgaroui by KO/TKO
30.0%
fair +234
Belgaroui by SUB
6.8%
fair +1375
Belgaroui by DEC
36.5%
fair +174
Santos by KO/TKO
2.6%
fair +3700
Santos by SUB
1.4%
fair +7300
Santos by DEC
22.7%
fair +340

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R122.0%fair +355
Ends in R212.1%fair +727
Ends in R36.7%fair +1403
Goes distance59.3%fair -145
How this fight plays out

The model makes Belgaroui a clear 73% favorite. Striking volume is near even (5.7 vs 6.1 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Belgaroui is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Belgaroui's most likely path is on the scorecards (37%), and the fight goes the distance 59% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.