Jaden Ortega vs Alvi Dasuyev Prediction · Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7, Sep 22, 2026
Fight dataModel pick: Alvi Dasuyev (55%), locked before the start; Alvi Dasuyev won (graded a hit).
The model's call
Locked before the fightWhere a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.
- Result
- Alvi Dasuyev
- By decision in round 3
- Closing price
- -240
- Right at this confidence
- 62%
- Won 41 of 66 called at 50–60%
How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
The model's chance of each ending. The books haven't posted method or round prices for this bout yet, so there is nothing to set beside it. Tap a cell for its fair price.
The model's chance the fight is still going.
9-0 in the last 9. 9 of 9 wins inside the distance.
- WSubmission · R1Ares FC 41: Dasuyev vs. SoumahJun 2026
- WKO/TKO · R1Arena Elite Championship 16Nov 2025
- WKO/TKO · R3LFA 218: Nascimento vs. MakaevSep 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1Brussels Warriors League 2Jun 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1Arena Elite Championship 14Jun 2025
6-0 in the last 6. 5 of 6 wins inside the distance.
- WKO/TKO · R2Combate Global: Mendez vs. PadronFeb 2026
- WKO/TKO · R1Combate Global: Enriquez vs. BrobyskovJul 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1Combate Global: Acosta vs. AnguianoApr 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1ExciteFight: Conquest of the CageJan 2025
- WDecisionCombate Global: Lara vs. LunaMay 2024
1 of 15 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 41% that it goes the distance. History, not a forecast.
How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Dasuyev solid at 60%. Expect Dasuyev to chase the takedown (1.7/15 min at 22%) while Ortega tries to keep it standing behind 78% takedown defense. Dasuyev is most dangerous early — 8 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Dasuyev's most likely path is on the scorecards (28%), and the fight goes the distance 41% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.