Melissa Amaya vs Valesca Machado
8:00 PM ET· scheduledModel pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Melissa Amayaby DEC
59% to win · 43% that it’s by DEC · 73% this goes the distance
Model fair price -146 · best book price +195
Probetrics fight model
Valesca Machado
41% +146
Melissa Amaya
59% -146
How it ends
Machado by KO/TKO
7.9%
fair +1168
Machado by SUB
2.7%
fair +3623
Machado by DEC
30.1%
fair +233
Amaya by KO/TKO
10.6%
fair +843
book +1200
Amaya by SUB
5.8%
fair +1610
book +1700
Amaya by DEC
42.9%
fair +133
book +350
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R113.4%fair +647 · +650
Ends in R27.4%fair +1258 · +700
Ends in R34.0%fair +2370 · +1000
Ends in R42.2%fair +4391
Goes distance73.0%fair -270 · -245
How this fight plays out
The model makes Amaya a solid 59% favorite. Amaya's most likely path is on the scorecards (43%), and the fight goes the distance 73% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.