Richie Miranda vs Manoel Sousa
5:00 PM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Manoel Sousaby DEC61% to win · closed -300
Result: Manoel Sousa by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Manoel Sousa
65% -184
Richie Miranda
35% +184
How it ends
Sousa by KO/TKO
22.3%
fair +348
Sousa by SUB
3.0%
fair +3202
Sousa by DEC
39.5%
fair +153
Miranda by KO/TKO
7.1%
fair +1308
Miranda by SUB
6.7%
fair +1396
Miranda by DEC
21.4%
fair +367
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R121.1%fair +374
Ends in R211.6%fair +761
Ends in R36.4%fair +1465
Goes distance60.9%fair -156
How this fight plays out
The model makes Sousa a solid 65% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.2 vs 3.6 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Sousa's most likely path is on the scorecards (39%), and the fight goes the distance 61% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.