Rinya Nakamura vs Brady Hiestand
5:00 PM ET· scheduledBooks price Hiestand at 23% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +0.7% on NakamuraEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Nakamura a clear 77% favorite, in line with the betting market. Striking volume is near even (3.0 vs 3.1 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Nakamura is most dangerous early — 6 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Nakamura's most likely path is by KO/TKO (37%), and the fight goes the distance 46% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.