Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas

6:15 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Damian Pinasby KO/TKO73% to win · closed -235
Result: Damian Pinas by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Damian Pinas
77% -336
Cesar Almeida
23% +336
How it ends
Pinas by KO/TKO
57.3%
fair -134
Pinas by SUB
4.1%
fair +2330
Pinas by DEC
15.6%
fair +539
Almeida by KO/TKO
9.5%
fair +947
Almeida by SUB
1.9%
fair +5165
Almeida by DEC
11.5%
fair +769

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R139.3%fair +154
Ends in R221.6%fair +362
Ends in R311.9%fair +741
Goes distance27.1%fair +268
How this fight plays out

The model makes Pinas a clear 77% favorite. On the feet, Pinas sets the tempo — 5.0 significant strikes a minute to 3.8 — so Almeida needs moments, not volume. Pinas is most dangerous early — 8 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Pinas's most likely path is by KO/TKO (57%), and the fight goes the distance 27% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.