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Gilbert Urbina vs Julien LeBlanc Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026

Fight data

Model pick: Gilbert Urbina (55%), locked before the start; Gilbert Urbina won (graded a hit).

Final5:00 PM ETUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Middleweight
Gilbert Urbina8-5
Julien LeBlanc10-4

The model's call

Locked before the fight
55%Gilbert Urbinaby decision✓ Hit

Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.

Result
Gilbert Urbina
By submission in round 1
Right at this confidence
62%
Won 41 of 66 called at 50–60%

How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.

Model vs market

The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.

KO/TKOSUBDEC
LeBlanc
Urbina

The model's chance of each ending. The books haven't posted method or round prices for this bout yet, so there is nothing to set beside it. Tap a cell for its fair price.

Fight clock · still going
29% reach the final bell
0255075100R1R2R3614029Ended R1 1:26

The model's chance the fight is still going.

Their tracked fights before this one
History
LeBlanc4 of 10 to the judges

7-3 in the last 10. 5 of 7 wins inside the distance; 1 of 3 losses were finishes.

  • LSubmission · R1vs Robert ValentinApr 2026
  • WSubmission · R2Samourai MMA 17Nov 2025
  • WKO/TKO · R3Samourai MMA 13Mar 2025
  • WKO/TKO · R2Unified MMA 57Jun 2024
  • WDecisionUnified MMA 53Oct 2023
Urbina2 of 10 to the judges

5-5 in the last 10. 4 of 5 wins inside the distance; 4 of 5 losses were finishes.

  • WKO/TKO · R1vs Vlasto ČepoAug 2026
  • LKO/TKO · R1vs Uroš MedićAug 2025
  • LKO/TKO · R1vs Charles RadtkeFeb 2024
  • WKO/TKO · R2UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. HillMay 2023
  • LSubmission · R2UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. ChikadzeAug 2021

6 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 29% that it goes the distance. History, not a forecast.

How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.

No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Urbina solid at 62%. Striking volume is near even (3.5 vs 3.8 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Urbina is most dangerous early — 4 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Urbina's most likely path is by submission (23%), and the fight goes the distance 29% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Save imageSquare

Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.