Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Julien LeBlanc vs Gilbert Urbina

5:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Gilbert Urbinaby DEC
56% to win · 26% that it’s by DEC · 38% this goes the distance
Model fair price -128
Probetrics fight model
Gilbert Urbina
56% -128
Julien LeBlanc
44% +128
How it ends
Urbina by KO/TKO
24.3%
fair +311
Urbina by SUB
5.8%
fair +1610
Urbina by DEC
26.0%
fair +285
LeBlanc by KO/TKO
22.9%
fair +337
LeBlanc by SUB
9.3%
fair +980
LeBlanc by DEC
11.7%
fair +756

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R133.6%fair +197
Ends in R218.5%fair +440
Ends in R310.2%fair +883
Goes distance37.7%fair +165
How this fight plays out

The model makes Urbina a narrow 56% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.5 vs 3.8 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Urbina is most dangerous early — 3 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Urbina's most likely path is on the scorecards (26%), and the fight goes the distance 38% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.