Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden

5:15 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Alessandro Costaby SUB63% to win · closed -218
Result: Alessandro Costa by SUB in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Cody Durden
26% +290
Alessandro Costa
74% -290
How it ends
Durden by KO/TKO
0.5%
fair +19403
Durden by SUB
3.4%
fair +2856
Durden by DEC
21.7%
fair +360
Costa by KO/TKO
32.4%
fair +208
Costa by SUB
28.1%
fair +255
Costa by DEC
13.8%
fair +625

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R134.8%fair +187
Ends in R219.1%fair +423
Ends in R310.5%fair +850
Goes distance35.5%fair +181
How this fight plays out

The model makes Costa a clear 74% favorite. Expect Durden to chase the takedown (3.5/15 min at 52%) while Costa tries to keep it standing behind 87% takedown defense. Costa's most likely path is by KO/TKO (32%), and the fight goes the distance 36% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.