Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice

8:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Carli Judiceby DEC65% to win · closed -575
Result: Carli Judice by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Carli Judice
54% -117
Jeisla Chaves
46% +117
How it ends
Judice by KO/TKO
22.9%
fair +338
Judice by SUB
5.9%
fair +1607
Judice by DEC
25.2%
fair +296
Chaves by KO/TKO
8.7%
fair +1048
Chaves by SUB
3.1%
fair +3133
Chaves by DEC
34.2%
fair +192

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R121.9%fair +357
Ends in R212.0%fair +731
Ends in R36.6%fair +1411
Goes distance59.5%fair -147
How this fight plays out

The model makes Judice a narrow 54% favorite. On the feet, Judice sets the tempo — 8.3 significant strikes a minute to 4.7 — so Chaves needs moments, not volume. Judice is most dangerous early — 5 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Judice's most likely path is on the scorecards (25%), and the fight goes the distance 59% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.