Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mahamed Aly vs Alik Lorenz

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Mahamed Alyby KO/TKO61% to win · closed -310
Result: Alik Lorenz by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Alik Lorenz
44% +126
Mahamed Aly
56% -126
How it ends
Lorenz by KO/TKO
33.2%
fair +201
Lorenz by SUB
6.6%
fair +1426
Lorenz by DEC
4.4%
fair +2163
Aly by KO/TKO
44.5%
fair +125
Aly by SUB
4.6%
fair +2067
Aly by DEC
6.7%
fair +1386

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R148.0%fair +108
Ends in R226.4%fair +279
Ends in R314.5%fair +589
Goes distance11.2%fair +797
How this fight plays out

The model makes Aly a narrow 56% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.1 vs 4.2 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Aly is most dangerous early — 3 of 5 tracked wins ended in the first round. Aly's most likely path is by KO/TKO (44%), and the fight goes the distance 11% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Aly: 86% of Lorenz's wins come by knockout and 100% of Aly's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.