Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charrière
12:00 PM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Felipe Limaby DEC54% to win · closed -205
Result: Felipe Lima by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Morgan Charrière
46% +118
Felipe Lima
54% -118
How it ends
Charrière by KO/TKO
25.9%
fair +287
Charrière by SUB
3.0%
fair +3289
Charrière by DEC
17.1%
fair +483
Lima by KO/TKO
6.3%
fair +1485
Lima by SUB
6.9%
fair +1358
Lima by DEC
40.9%
fair +145
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R122.7%fair +341
Ends in R212.5%fair +702
Ends in R36.9%fair +1358
Goes distance58.0%fair -138
How this fight plays out
The model makes Lima a narrow 54% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.1 vs 3.2 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Lima's most likely path is on the scorecards (41%), and the fight goes the distance 58% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.