Elisha Ellison vs Gable Steveson
8:15 PM ET· final“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Steveson a clear 70% favorite. On the feet, Steveson sets the tempo — 5.9 significant strikes a minute to 4.0 — so Ellison needs moments, not volume. Steveson is most dangerous early — 4 of 4 tracked wins ended in the first round. Steveson's most likely path is by KO/TKO (55%), and the fight goes the distance 10% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Steveson: 80% of Ellison's wins come by knockout and 100% of Steveson's losses have come the same way.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.