Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Lone'er Kavanagh vs Brandon Royval

9:45 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Lone'er Kavanaghby DEC56% to win · closed -215
Result: Brandon Royval by SUB in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Brandon Royval
44% +127
Lone'er Kavanagh
56% -127
How it ends
Royval by KO/TKO
3.0%
fair +3268
Royval by SUB
17.3%
fair +477
Royval by DEC
23.7%
fair +322
Kavanagh by KO/TKO
9.7%
fair +927
Kavanagh by SUB
3.5%
fair +2762
Kavanagh by DEC
42.8%
fair +134

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R118.1%fair +452
Ends in R210.0%fair +904
Ends in R35.5%fair +1726
Goes distance66.5%fair -198
How this fight plays out

The model makes Kavanagh a narrow 56% favorite. Royval throws more (5.7 vs 4.1/min), but the model sees Kavanagh edging rounds on effectiveness — landing at 50% to Royval's 42%. Kavanagh's most likely path is on the scorecards (43%), and the fight goes the distance 66% of the time. The live danger for Kavanagh: Royval finishes 56% of wins by submission and Kavanagh has been submitted in 50% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.