Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Kyle Daukausby KO/TKO~ Round 1
68% to win · 27% that it’s by KO/TKO · 73% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1
Model fair price -215
Longest single script: Barriault by KO/TKO(27.7%) — Daukaus's win chances split across methods, so the other side's one likeliest path outscores each of theirs.The pick above is the predicted winner and their most likely method. But across all six winner-and-method combos, this one single outcome carries the most probability — worth a look on method-of-victory markets, where it usually pays plus-money.
Probetrics fight model
Kyle Daukaus
68% -215
Marc-Andre Barriault
32% +215
How it ends
Daukaus by KO/TKO
27.3%
fair +266
Daukaus by SUB
16.8%
fair +497
Daukaus by DEC
24.2%
fair +313
Barriault by KO/TKO
27.7%
fair +261
Barriault by SUB
0.9%
fair +11424
Barriault by DEC
3.2%
fair +3054
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R139.2%fair +155
Ends in R221.6%fair +364
Ends in R311.9%fair +743
Goes distance27.4%fair +265
How this fight plays out
The model makes Daukaus a solid 68% favorite. Expect Daukaus to chase the takedown (1.5/15 min at 15%) while Barriault tries to keep it standing behind 67% takedown defense. Daukaus is most dangerous early — 5 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Daukaus's most likely path is by KO/TKO (27%), and the fight goes the distance 27% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Daukaus: 65% of Barriault's wins come by knockout and 60% of Daukaus's losses have come the same way.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
