Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026
Fight dataModel pick: Kyle Daukaus (65%), locked before the start; Marc-Andre Barriault won (graded a miss).
The model's call
Locked before the fightWhere a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.
- Result
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- By KO/TKO in round 1
- Closing price
- -195
- Right at this confidence
- 66%
- Won 35 of 53 called at 60–70%
How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.
Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 1.5 rounds 56% · over 2.5 rounds 39% · goes the distance 33%.
4-6 in the last 10. 3 of 4 wins inside the distance; 3 of 6 losses were finishes.
- LDecisionvs Michal OleksiejczukFeb 2026
- LDecisionvs Shara MagomedovJul 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1vs Bruno SilvaMay 2025
- LKO/TKO · R1vs Dustin StoltzfusNov 2024
- LKO/TKO · R1vs Joe PyferJun 2024
7-3 in the last 10. 6 of 7 wins inside the distance; 3 of 3 losses were finishes.
- LKO/TKO · R1vs Bo NickalJun 2026
- WSubmission · R1vs Gerald MeerschaertNov 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1vs Michel PereiraAug 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1CFFC 132: Daukaus vs. PatershukJun 2024
- WSubmission · R3CFFC 129: Kline vs. RomeroFeb 2024
5 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 21% that it goes the distance, the books 32%. History, not a forecast.
How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Daukaus solid at 63%. Expect Daukaus to chase the takedown (1.5/15 min at 15%) while Barriault tries to keep it standing behind 67% takedown defense. Daukaus is most dangerous early — 5 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Daukaus's most likely path is by KO/TKO (28%), and the fight goes the distance 21% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Daukaus: 67% of Barriault's wins come by knockout and 67% of Daukaus's losses have come the same way.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.