Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers

5:00 PM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Lerryan Douglasby KO/TKO65% to win · closed -362
Result: Jamall Emmers by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Jamall Emmers
42% +136
Lerryan Douglas
58% -136
How it ends
Emmers by KO/TKO
27.9%
fair +259
Emmers by SUB
3.7%
fair +2601
Emmers by DEC
10.8%
fair +822
Douglas by KO/TKO
46.1%
fair +117
Douglas by SUB
4.0%
fair +2414
Douglas by DEC
7.5%
fair +1234

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R144.1%fair +127
Ends in R224.2%fair +312
Ends in R313.3%fair +650
Goes distance18.3%fair +445
How this fight plays out

The model makes Douglas a narrow 58% favorite. Expect Emmers to chase the takedown (2.6/15 min at 53%) while Douglas tries to keep it standing. Douglas is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Douglas's most likely path is by KO/TKO (46%), and the fight goes the distance 18% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.