Apollo Gomes vs Kwon Won Il
7:00 PM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Apollo Gomesby DEC59% to win · closed +116
Result: Apollo Gomes by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Kwon Won Il
38% +165
Apollo Gomes
62% -165
How it ends
Il by KO/TKO
19.1%
fair +424
Il by SUB
4.1%
fair +2330
Il by DEC
14.5%
fair +591
Gomes by KO/TKO
14.5%
fair +591
Gomes by SUB
13.5%
fair +640
Gomes by DEC
34.4%
fair +191
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R127.6%fair +262
Ends in R215.2%fair +558
Ends in R38.4%fair +1097
Goes distance48.8%fair +105
How this fight plays out
The model makes Gomes a solid 62% favorite. Gomes's most likely path is on the scorecards (34%), and the fight goes the distance 49% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.