Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Rongzhu vs Rafa Garcia

2:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Rongzhuby DEC51% to win · closed -149
Result: Rongzhu by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Rafa Garcia
47% +113
Rongzhu
53% -113
How it ends
Garcia by KO/TKO
10.0%
fair +902
Garcia by SUB
4.7%
fair +2031
Garcia by DEC
32.2%
fair +211
Rongzhu by KO/TKO
3.4%
fair +2811
Rongzhu by SUB
5.4%
fair +1761
Rongzhu by DEC
44.3%
fair +126

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R112.7%fair +689
Ends in R27.0%fair +1334
Ends in R33.8%fair +2508
Goes distance76.5%fair -326
How this fight plays out

The model makes Rongzhu a narrow 53% favorite. On the feet, Rongzhu sets the tempo — 5.4 significant strikes a minute to 4.3 — so Garcia needs moments, not volume. Garcia tends to settle in for the long haul — 10 of 13 tracked fights reached the judges. Rongzhu's most likely path is on the scorecards (44%), and the fight goes the distance 77% of the time. The live danger for Rongzhu: Garcia finishes 42% of wins by submission and Rongzhu has been submitted in 67% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.