Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

3:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Losene Keitaby KO/TKO65% to win · closed -355
Result: Losene Keita by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Muhammad Naimov
34% +196
Losene Keita
66% -196
How it ends
Naimov by KO/TKO
11.4%
fair +775
Naimov by SUB
1.7%
fair +5681
Naimov by DEC
20.6%
fair +384
Keita by KO/TKO
33.5%
fair +199
Keita by SUB
4.2%
fair +2285
Keita by DEC
28.5%
fair +251

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R127.4%fair +264
Ends in R215.1%fair +562
Ends in R38.3%fair +1104
Goes distance49.2%fair +103
How this fight plays out

The model makes Keita a solid 66% favorite. On the feet, Keita sets the tempo — 3.8 significant strikes a minute to 2.7 — so Naimov needs moments, not volume. Keita's most likely path is by KO/TKO (33%), and the fight goes the distance 49% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Keita: 46% of Naimov's wins come by knockout and 50% of Keita's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.