Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

3:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Daniil Donchenkoby KO/TKO76% to win · closed -230
Result: Daniil Donchenko by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Punahele Soriano
24% +313
Daniil Donchenko
76% -313
How it ends
Soriano by KO/TKO
4.8%
fair +1970
Soriano by SUB
1.3%
fair +7765
Soriano by DEC
18.1%
fair +452
Donchenko by KO/TKO
31.7%
fair +216
Donchenko by SUB
5.0%
fair +1896
Donchenko by DEC
39.1%
fair +156

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R123.1%fair +333
Ends in R212.7%fair +687
Ends in R37.0%fair +1331
Goes distance57.2%fair -134
How this fight plays out

The model makes Donchenko a clear 76% favorite. Expect Soriano to chase the takedown (1.9/15 min at 52%) while Donchenko tries to keep it standing behind 75% takedown defense. Donchenko's most likely path is on the scorecards (39%), and the fight goes the distance 57% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.