Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026
Fight dataModel pick: Louis Jourdain (60%), locked before the start; Timmy Cuamba won (graded a miss).
The model's call
Locked before the fightWhere a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.
- Result
- Timmy Cuamba
- By submission in round 2
- Closing price
- -166
- Right at this confidence
- 66%
- Won 35 of 53 called at 60–70%
How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.
Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 2.5 rounds 55% · goes the distance 50%.
7-3 in the last 10. 4 of 7 wins inside the distance; 1 of 3 losses were finishes.
- LSubmission · R2vs Bernardo SopajMay 2026
- WDecisionvs ChangHo LeeNov 2025
- WKO/TKO · R2vs Roberto RomeroApr 2025
- LDecisionvs Lucas AlmeidaJun 2024
- LDecisionvs Bolaji OkiFeb 2024
7-3 in the last 10. 5 of 7 wins inside the distance; 2 of 3 losses were finishes.
- WSubmission · R3vs Magno DiasOct 2025
- WKO/TKO · R2Samourai MMA 14May 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1Samourai MMA 6May 2023
- WKO/TKO · R2Unified MMA 48Dec 2022
- LDecisionUAE Warriors 15Jan 2021
8 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 40% that it goes the distance, the books 47%. History, not a forecast.
How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Jourdain solid at 66%. On the feet, Jourdain sets the tempo — 5.5 significant strikes a minute to 3.1 — so Cuamba needs moments, not volume. Jourdain's most likely path is on the scorecards (27%), and the fight goes the distance 40% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.