Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Timmy Cuamba vs Louis Jourdain

8:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Louis Jourdainby DEC
69% to win · 32% that it’s by DEC · 51% this goes the distance
Model fair price -225
Probetrics fight model
Louis Jourdain
69% -225
Timmy Cuamba
31% +225
How it ends
Jourdain by KO/TKO
16.7%
fair +500
Jourdain by SUB
20.2%
fair +394
Jourdain by DEC
32.3%
fair +209
Cuamba by KO/TKO
8.6%
fair +1063
Cuamba by SUB
3.7%
fair +2622
Cuamba by DEC
18.5%
fair +441

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R126.6%fair +277
Ends in R214.6%fair +585
Ends in R38.0%fair +1145
Goes distance50.8%fair -103
How this fight plays out

The model makes Jourdain a solid 69% favorite. On the feet, Jourdain sets the tempo — 5.5 significant strikes a minute to 3.1 — so Cuamba needs moments, not volume. Jourdain's most likely path is on the scorecards (32%), and the fight goes the distance 51% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.