John Castaneda vs Alatengheili
5:00 PM ET· scheduledBooks price Alatengheili at 24% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +13.6% on AlatengheiliEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Castaneda a solid 63% favorite, cooler than the market's 76% — the value sits with Alatengheili. On the feet, Castaneda sets the tempo — 5.1 significant strikes a minute to 3.0 — so Alatengheili needs moments, not volume. Castaneda's most likely path is on the scorecards (47%), and the fight goes the distance 73% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.