Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Charles Jourdain vs Marlon Vera

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Charles Jourdainby DEC63% to win · closed -190
Result: Marlon Vera by KO/TKO in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Marlon Vera
38% +166
Charles Jourdain
62% -166
How it ends
Vera by KO/TKO
12.7%
fair +686
Vera by SUB
1.4%
fair +6908
Vera by DEC
23.4%
fair +327
Jourdain by KO/TKO
2.7%
fair +3541
Jourdain by SUB
16.7%
fair +498
Jourdain by DEC
42.9%
fair +133

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R118.2%fair +451
Ends in R210.0%fair +901
Ends in R35.5%fair +1721
Goes distance66.4%fair -197
How this fight plays out

The model makes Jourdain a solid 62% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.5 vs 5.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Vera tends to settle in for the long haul — 9 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Jourdain's most likely path is on the scorecards (43%), and the fight goes the distance 66% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.