Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mark Vologdin vs Borislav Nikolic

10:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Borislav Nikolicby DEC56% to win · closed -186
Result: Borislav Nikolic by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Borislav Nikolic
70% -233
Mark Vologdin
30% +233
How it ends
Nikolic by KO/TKO
16.0%
fair +526
Nikolic by SUB
16.4%
fair +510
Nikolic by DEC
37.6%
fair +166
Vologdin by KO/TKO
8.5%
fair +1074
Vologdin by SUB
13.9%
fair +618
Vologdin by DEC
7.6%
fair +1219

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R129.6%fair +238
Ends in R216.3%fair +514
Ends in R39.0%fair +1017
Goes distance45.2%fair +121
How this fight plays out

The model makes Nikolic a solid 70% favorite. Vologdin throws more (5.2 vs 4.0/min), but the model sees Nikolic edging rounds on effectiveness — absorbing 3.4/min to Vologdin's 6.9. Vologdin is most dangerous early — 4 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Nikolic's most likely path is on the scorecards (38%), and the fight goes the distance 45% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.