How to use Probetrics

Start here

In a hurry? Read a prop in two minutes: the Line Read, the fair line, hit rates and where the model lives, four short screens. Prefer to be shown? Take the tour: a click-through of a few real pages, about two minutes.

Every sport uses the same words for the same jobs, so learning one teaches the rest: Games (what is on), Props, Players, Teams and Compare (UFC: Fights, Odds, Fighters). Pick a sport in the header and its row of pages appears under it; pages inside a slot (standings, schedule strength, line shopping) show as a second row of pills. Predictions and Results work the same way, and Tools holds line shopping, the odds board, the odds calculator, your saved props and the live prop tracker.

Unsure of a term? Learn explains each one with a worked example: what a prop line is, no-vig odds, reading a hit rate and what "moved" means. Every sport's props are on one page too: all props, with Trends for player and team history in tonight's situations. What is free and what Pro adds is on Pricing.

• ▸The volt Predictions button in the header is the model's home for every sport. Nothing on a sport's own pages is a pick.
• ▸Data first: a game page shows the market, the matchup and the history. The model's read of the same game is one click away on its prediction page.
• ▸Live scores, clocks and results update on their own; the Live chip in the header lists what is on the air right now.
• ▸Search (the header box, or ⌘K) finds any player, team or fighter.
• ▸21+ only. Sportsbook links go only to licensed US sportsbooks and are plain links, not affiliate links (one that ever is will say so); nothing here is advice or a guarantee.

One card per game for NFL, college football, NBA, WNBA, college basketball, MLB and NHL, and one per fight for UFC: kickoff or start time, records, the market's spread / total / moneyline with the best price, and the facts that matter for that sport (venue and weather, probable starters in baseball, rest and last ten in basketball, weight class and ranks in UFC).

When to use it: Whenever you want to see what is on and where the books have it. Football goes week by week, baseball and basketball a day at a time (pick a date), UFC by event.

• ▸Spreads are written from the favorite's side (BUF -7.5). Best prices name the book; clicking a price opens that sportsbook.
• ▸Every sport with game lines has an Odds board (Tools, then Odds board): every game's consensus number, how far it has moved since it opened and toward which team, the no-vig win chance and the best price on each side.
• ▸Preseason and off-season games are labelled, and records show last season's until a team has played.

Every game opens a matchup page built the same way: a hero with both teams and the market, a short What to know, then tabs: Overview, Props, Team stats, and History and market. Football adds situations and tendencies, baseball adds probable starters, bullpens and the park, basketball adds team rankings and head to head, and every sport shows each book's line and how it moved.

When to use it: Before you look at any number. It answers who has the advantage in each part of the game, and why.

• ▸Overview compares the two sides category by category (football: passing, rushing, third downs and the red zone, big plays; baseball: starters, lineup, bullpen; basketball: the ten team rankings).
• ▸History and market lists every book's spread, total and moneyline, the open-to-now movement, and head-to-head results.
• ▸The Props tab is the props board scoped to this game.
• ▸A finished game keeps its box and result; a live game updates its score, clock and props totals.

NFL and college football games show a field diagram with both teams, the roof, surface, temperature, wind, precipitation and a stadium scoring factor. MLB games show a ballpark diagram with the home team's mark, wind blowing in or out of the park, and a park factor. Both have a popup that ranks every stadium or park.

When to use it: Outdoor games where wind, cold or rain can move scoring or the kicking game, and hitter's-park versus pitcher's-park questions in baseball.

• ▸The stadium factor is history: how scoring at this venue has differed from the league average since its current stadium opened. It is context, not a forecast.
• ▸In baseball, wind is turned into plain words for that park: in from left, out to right, and so on. Football shows wind speed.
• ▸Forecast chips are labelled when a real weather reading is not available yet; they refresh as the game gets closer.
• ▸Domes and closed roofs show Indoors instead of weather.

One board layout for player props in NFL, college football, NBA, WNBA and MLB: market pills, player search, a sortable table (a card list on phones) with the line, the best price and book, the books' implied chance, the player's recent results against that line, and the opposing defense's grade for the matchup.

When to use it: Hunting for a prop or scanning a game's lines and how the player has done against them.

• ▸Streak sorts as +N over (green) or -N under (red); matchup sorts best grade first; empty rows sort last.
• ▸Every viewer sees the line, the best price each way and the last-ten bars (a filled bar over the dashed line is an over, a hollow bar under it an under). Hit rates and hits of games, the gap against the price (vs price), the sorts and the hit-rate slider built on them and the Form switch (this season, L10, L5) are part of Pro.
• ▸NFL adds prop insights (where a player's history and the books' price disagree, with how many splits were checked and how many would clear the bar by luck), line shopping (where books disagree, middles, better prices) and saved props. Every sport's board has a star to save a prop; the list is kept in your browser, or on your account when you are signed in, and the live prop tracker shows each saved prop's running total against its line during games.
• ▸Prop lines are the books' numbers, not ours. Lines mostly post a few days before kickoff and can move until the start; games without lines yet are listed under No lines yet.

Each player page has a card per market: a bar chart of the player's games against the line, with hover cards showing the game, opponent, date and every stat, plus season shading (this season versus last) and a Show switch for how many games to display.

When to use it: Checking whether a line is realistic: how often he has cleared it, in which games, and against whom.

• ▸Drag the what-if line to see the hit rate at any number. Filters cover home and away, favorite and underdog, opponent, rest and, in basketball, back-to-back and 30+ minute games; football adds indoors, wind and division games.
• ▸Phones start with the last 10 games; tap Show to widen the window.
• ▸Everything above is a player's full breakdown. Without an account a card shows a preview: the line, the best prices, the books' fair chance and his last 10 games against the line as bars for one market, without how often he has cleared it. A free account opens 5 players' full breakdowns a day (coming back to a player the same day is free); Pro has no limit.
• ▸Every rate comes with a range and the books' implied percentage so a small sample is not mistaken for a trend.
• ▸Baseball cards add pitch-type matchups, handedness splits and pitch-location and spray charts; basketball adds shot types and similar players against the next opponent; football adds defense-against-position, volume and share of team usage, throw quality and routes.
• ▸It is a player's own history, never a pick. If a book has not posted a line yet, the card still shows research against the next game.

Player search and leaders for every sport, a full game log and profile for each player, and a two-player Compare that lines them up on per-game production, recent form and this week's lines.

When to use it: Scouting a player, or settling a which-of-these-two question.

• ▸Compare is descriptive only: it shows who has done what, never who will do better.
• ▸Football player pages include his snaps, targets and carries, splits against tonight's setup, and how the next defense has treated players at his position.
• ▸College football pages have per-game averages, quarters and halves where the play data allows, and lines where books post them.

A card grid of every team and a page for each: hero, What to know, and tabs for the team's games, stats, leaders and (football) tendencies and key players. Basketball and baseball also have standings, and basketball has defense versus position and schedule strength.

When to use it: Understanding a team beyond one game: how it plays, who leads it and what is left on the schedule.

• ▸Standings tables read left to right by rank, record and games back; on phones the team shows as its abbreviation.
• ▸MLB has a playoff picture view with seeds 1-3 as division leaders and 4-6 as wild cards.
• ▸Schedule strength ranks 1 as the hardest; defense versus position ranks 1 as the softest against that position.

Every upcoming card grouped by event, a fight page for each bout, a Live card view for the card that is on, an Events archive, an Odds page of moneylines and method and round prices, and Fighters, the rankings with a page for every fighter. Fight Lab, which lines up any two tracked fighters, is the model's and sits under Predictions.

When to use it: Fight week, and any time you want to compare two fighters.

• ▸The fight page ranks its sections by value: the tale of the tape, the market and line movement, form and history, then odds by book. Each fighter's stats sit on their own side so you can compare directly.
• ▸Live card shows state and results as they happen. Events lists the card in fight order with weight classes and times.
• ▸The Odds page has tabs for moneyline, method, round and goes the distance, each ordered the way that market reads best. A fight only appears in a market when a book has priced it.
• ▸Fight Lab has data and a Model simulation tab for the model's read of a hypothetical fight.
• ▸Sportsbook prices are shown as posted; books occasionally quote a replaced opponent, and we drop those rather than show a wrong price.

The model's side of the site, with one tab per sport (NFL, CFB, NBA, WNBA, CBB, UFC) plus the Model board, Disagreements and Fight Lab. Each sport tab has its picks and its model page (UFC adds picks by card and the fight notes); a sport's page shows record tiles, upcoming picks and recent results, and each game has its own prediction page with the model's read.

When to use it: After you have looked at the data and want the model's opinion, or want to see how it has done.

• ▸The winner call is the product: a calibrated probability, locked before the start and graded after. When it says 70%, it has been right about 70% of the time in testing.
• ▸Where a game is priced, the winner call is built on the sportsbooks' no-vig price, because that tested better than the model alone. It mostly matches the betting favorite; the results pages set our record beside the favorite's on the same games.
• ▸Disagreements lists the games where our pick was not the favorite, with the full record of how those have gone. It is history, not a list of bets.
• ▸Prop picks appear only when the model's prop read has been checked against real closing lines. Until then they are recorded quietly, not published.
• ▸The model's picks are part of Pro (one featured NFL or college pick a week is open to everyone); the record and graded results always stay free.

Every pick locked before the start and graded after, with running winner records by sport, per-week or per-event breakdowns and calibration checks. Winners are the record.

When to use it: Before you trust anything else on this site.

• ▸What gets graded is exactly what the site displayed before the game, misses included.
• ▸Cards marked Backtest, not locked are finished games priced after the fact; they never count toward the record.
• ▸The calibration panel shows whether our percentages mean what they say.

A typical day

1. 1 · Scan the games: open a sport and look at what is on, the market and the conditions.
2. 2 · Open the game: read What to know, then the tabs for the matchup, stats and how the line has moved.
3. 3 · Check the props: use the board, then a player's card to see the history against the line and line shop before you bet.
4. 4 · Read the model: the game's prediction page, or Disagreements for where it differs from the favorite.
5. 5 · Check the record: Results grades every pick in public afterwards.