How to use Probetrics

Every player prop on tonight's slate in one sortable table: the current line, the best price across ~40 sportsbooks, how often the player has cleared that line recently (L5/L10/L20/season hit rates), and the model's projection with its edge.

When to use it: Start here every day. It's the fastest way to see the whole slate and spot props where a player's recent form disagrees with the number the books hung.

• ▸Green hit-rate cells mean the player clears this line often; red means rarely. L10 is the default sort.
• ▸Best price is highlighted with the book's logo — clicking odds opens that sportsbook with the bet in your slip.
• ▸Proj and Edge come from our model — positive edge means the model thinks the Over is underpriced (negative, the Under).
• ▸Use the market chips (Hits, Total Bases, Strikeouts…) and game filter to narrow; switch sports with the strip at the top.
• ▸Click any player row for their detail page: bar chart vs the line, matchup splits, hot/cold zones, alternate lines.

Tonight's slate with moneylines, spreads, totals, line-movement sparklines, and market pulse. Each game page is a full matchup report — probable pitchers, bullpen fatigue, batter vs pitch-type, team form.

When to use it: Use it when you're researching a specific game rather than scanning players — or to see how the market has moved since lines opened.

• ▸The combined runs read on each card tells you whether team scoring rates lean Over or Under versus the posted total.
• ▸Game pages stack the matchup intelligence the books price in — check it before taking a side.
• ▸For UFC, this tab lists the fight card; every fight links to a full breakdown (more under UFC below).

The model's strongest disagreements with the market across every sport, ranked. One list, filterable by sport.

When to use it: When you want the shortlist instead of the full board — the props and fights where our numbers and the books' numbers differ the most.

• ▸Edge % = model probability minus the market's implied probability with the vig removed.
• ▸Bigger edge does not mean safer — it means bigger disagreement. Treat 10%+ edges with more skepticism, not more money.

Bets priced so that, if our model probability is right, the bet makes money in the long run — sorted by expected value per dollar, with the exact book carrying the price.

When to use it: For disciplined bettors who care about closing value and long-run math rather than tonight's outcome.

• ▸EV% is your expected profit per $100 if the model probability is accurate.
• ▸The Kelly column suggests a conservative (quarter-Kelly) stake size relative to your bankroll.

Price discrepancies between sportsbooks: arbitrage (both sides at profit) and middles (a window where both bets can win).

When to use it: Rare, small, and short-lived — check it when you have accounts at several books and can move fast.

• ▸Arbs guarantee a small margin regardless of outcome if you can place both sides before the prices move.
• ▸Middles are lottery tickets with positive expected value — you're paying a small vig for a chance both sides hit.

DFS pick'em lines (PrizePicks, Underdog, Pick6) compared against real sportsbook prices — showing which picks the books think are mispriced.

When to use it: If you play DFS pick'em apps, this is the discount rack: entries where the app's line is softer than the sportsbook consensus.

• ▸A pick shown with high fair win probability means sportsbooks price that side as likely — the app's line lags the market.
• ▸Remember app payout multipliers bake in their own margin; the fair-prob column is the honest comparison.

Auto-written, data-backed nuggets across sports: streaks, trends, matchup facts, and pattern insights tied to bettable markets.

When to use it: Skim it for angles you wouldn't have looked for — every insight links to the underlying player or fight page.

• ▸Each insight is generated from our own ingested data — nothing is copied from touts.
• ▸UFC pattern insights ("won his last five by KO") map directly onto method-of-victory markets.

A complete fight-analytics suite: the Fight Board prices every bout against our model; fight pages carry a locked model pick, tale of the tape, stat comparison, pace data, and a written breakdown; Fight Lab simulates any two of 600+ fighters.

When to use it: Fight week. The board and fight pages update with the odds; the model pick is locked before the fight and graded publicly after.

• ▸The Model Pick banner is the headline: winner, most likely method, and round window or goes-the-distance.
• ▸Probabilities are calibrated — squeezed toward the betting market where a line exists and discounted in chaotic matchups.
• ▸Fight Lab (UFC → Fight Lab button) lets you match anyone against anyone: dream fights, rematches, cross-division what-ifs.

Every model prediction, locked before the game and graded after, with running totals: hit rates, $100 flat-bet ledgers, per-event breakdowns, market-agreement records, and calibration checks. No hindsight, no deleting misses.

When to use it: Before you trust anything else on this site, read this page. It's also where you check how the model did last night.

• ▸Picks are snapshotted while games are upcoming — what gets graded is exactly what the site displayed, misses included.
• ▸The $100 ledgers answer the only question that matters: would following the model have made money?
• ▸The calibration panel shows whether our percentages mean what they say (a 60% claim should win about 60% of the time).

A day with Probetrics

1. 1 · Morning: Check Results for last night's grades, then scan Edges for today's biggest model-vs-market gaps.
2. 2 · Research: Take anything interesting to the Prop Board and click into the player page — does the hit-rate history, matchup, and line movement support the edge?
3. 3 · Price: Confirm you're getting the best number — the board highlights the top price, and +EV shows the math at that price.
4. 4 · Bet: Click the odds to open your sportsbook with the bet in the slip, or build a slip on-site and export it.
5. 5 · Saturday: Fight night — UFC Fight Board and fight pages, then check Sunday morning's graded card.

Probetrics is a research tool, not a tout service — every number is explained, every prediction is graded in public, and nothing is ever "guaranteed." Bet only what you can afford to lose. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.