Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Esteban Ribovics vs King Green

8:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
King Greenby DEC
55% to win · 23% that it’s by DEC · 44% this goes the distance
Model fair price -122
Probetrics fight model
King Green
55% -122
Esteban Ribovics
45% +122
How it ends
Green by KO/TKO
17.1%
fair +486
Green by SUB
15.1%
fair +562
Green by DEC
22.7%
fair +340
Ribovics by KO/TKO
21.2%
fair +372
Ribovics by SUB
2.5%
fair +3976
Ribovics by DEC
21.5%
fair +366

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R130.1%fair +232
Ends in R216.6%fair +503
Ends in R39.1%fair +997
Goes distance44.2%fair +126
How this fight plays out

The model makes Green a narrow 55% favorite. Striking volume is near even (7.7 vs 7.0 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Green is most dangerous early — 3 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Green's most likely path is on the scorecards (23%), and the fight goes the distance 44% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.