Every upcoming bout priced against the Probetrics fight model — win probabilities, market comparison, and round totals.
The model makes Nurmagomedov a clear 72% favorite, cooler than the market's 83% — the value sits with Yadong. Expect Nurmagomedov to chase the takedown (3.8/15 min at 47%) while Yadong tries to keep it standing behind 79% takedown defense.
The model makes Gomes a solid 58% favorite, more confident than the market's 43%. Striking volume is near even (4.5 vs 4.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Asakura a solid 63% favorite, cooler than the market's 79% — the value sits with Aoriqileng. Aoriqileng will out-work him on volume (4.4 vs 3.3/min) — Asakura's route is a finish, not a points battle.
The model makes Sumudaerji a narrow 56% favorite, cooler than the market's 67% — the value sits with Perez. Striking volume is near even (3.9 vs 4.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Liu a narrow 52% favorite. Liu is most dangerous early — 2 of 3 tracked wins ended in the first round.
The model makes Hasan a clear 73% favorite, cooler than the market's 86% — the value sits with Rojas. Hasan is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round.
The model makes Lima a solid 58% favorite, cooler than the market's 71% — the value sits with Batbayar. Batbayar is most dangerous early — 6 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round.
The model makes Tsuruya a clear 73% favorite, cooler than the market's 86% — the value sits with Borjas. Expect Tsuruya to chase the takedown (2.9/15 min at 25%) while Borjas tries to keep it standing behind 81% takedown defense.
The model makes Jenkins a narrow 51% favorite, more confident than the market's 42%. Expect Jenkins to chase the takedown (1.9/15 min at 60%) while Woodson tries to keep it standing behind 81% takedown defense.
The model makes Nuzzi a narrow 53% favorite, more confident than the market's 38%. Nuzzi is most dangerous early — 6 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round.
The model makes Lui a solid 66% favorite, cooler than the market's 71% — the value sits with Santiago. Expect Lui to chase the takedown (4.2/15 min at 47%) while Santiago tries to keep it standing.
The model makes Polastri a solid 65% favorite, in line with the betting market. On the feet, Polastri sets the tempo — 5.9 significant strikes a minute to 4.3 — so Xiong needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Nelson a narrow 57% favorite, more confident than the market's 44%. Nelson's most likely path is on the scorecards (24%), and the fight goes the distance 35% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
The model makes Parnasse a clear 72% favorite, cooler than the market's 81% — the value sits with Hooker. Parnasse's most likely path is by KO/TKO (58%), and the fight goes the distance 28% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
The model makes Sola a narrow 51% favorite, more confident than the market's 42%. On the feet, Sola sets the tempo — 4.4 significant strikes a minute to 2.8 — so Ziam needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Ruziboev a narrow 54% favorite, more confident than the market's 36%. Striking volume is near even (2.5 vs 2.8 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Lima a narrow 54% favorite, cooler than the market's 65% — the value sits with Charrière. Striking volume is near even (4.1 vs 3.2 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Keita a solid 64% favorite, cooler than the market's 73% — the value sits with Naimov. On the feet, Keita sets the tempo — 3.8 significant strikes a minute to 2.7 — so Naimov needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Pinto a clear 75% favorite, more confident than the market's 70%. Striking volume is near even (3.2 vs 3.3 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Campbell a clear 71% favorite, in line with the betting market. Expect Campbell to chase the takedown (3.7/15 min at 40%) while Peek tries to keep it standing behind 54% takedown defense.
The model makes Sy a solid 66% favorite, in line with the betting market. Expect Sy to chase the takedown (2.2/15 min at 35%) while Bukauskas tries to keep it standing behind 88% takedown defense.
The model makes Santos a solid 61% favorite, more confident than the market's 54%. Wood throws more (5.7 vs 3.5/min), but the model sees Santos edging rounds on effectiveness — absorbing 2.6/min to Wood's 4.6.
The model makes Syguła a solid 60% favorite, more confident than the market's 46%. On the feet, Syguła sets the tempo — 6.4 significant strikes a minute to 3.0 — so Cornolle needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Dias a solid 65% favorite, more confident than the market's 53%. Expect Dias to chase the takedown (2.9/15 min at 57%) while Duclos tries to keep it standing.
The model makes Montenegro a narrow 50% favorite, more confident than the market's 39%. Benouaich is most dangerous early — 3 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round.
The model makes Morales a narrow 57% favorite. Moreno throws more (4.2 vs 2.6/min), but the model sees Morales edging rounds on effectiveness — absorbing 3.1/min to Moreno's 4.0.
The model makes McMillen a narrow 58% favorite. On the feet, McMillen sets the tempo — 10.6 significant strikes a minute to 6.2 — so Rahiki needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Fiorot a narrow 56% favorite. On the feet, Fiorot sets the tempo — 5.5 significant strikes a minute to 4.0 — so Grasso needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Acosta a narrow 56% favorite. Expect Blaydes to chase the takedown (3.4/15 min at 38%) while Acosta tries to keep it standing behind 73% takedown defense.
The model makes Martinez a clear 76% favorite. On the feet, Martinez sets the tempo — 4.7 significant strikes a minute to 3.4 — so Ige needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Cháirez a solid 62% favorite. Expect Elliott to chase the takedown (2.9/15 min at 33%) while Cháirez tries to keep it standing behind 48% takedown defense.
The model makes Bahamondes a clear 71% favorite. On the feet, Bahamondes sets the tempo — 5.8 significant strikes a minute to 3.7 — so Salikhov needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Jimenez a clear 71% favorite. On the feet, Jimenez sets the tempo — 5.8 significant strikes a minute to 4.7 — so Vera needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Tarin a solid 64% favorite. On the feet, Tarin sets the tempo — 5.9 significant strikes a minute to 4.0 — so Aldrich needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Rongzhu a narrow 51% favorite. On the feet, Rongzhu sets the tempo — 5.4 significant strikes a minute to 4.3 — so Garcia needs moments, not volume.
Books don't quote UFC fighter props (strikes, takedowns) yet — this board prices fight winners and round totals against the Probetrics fight model (backtested on 1,500+ fights: 61% winner accuracy on held-out data). Model/Edge columns appear once both fighters' data is built. Tap a fighter for the full breakdown.