Every upcoming bout priced against the Probetrics fight model — win probabilities, market comparison, and round totals.
The model makes Holloway a solid 61% favorite, cooler than the market's 72% — the value sits with McGregor. On the feet, Holloway sets the tempo — 7.1 significant strikes a minute to 5.5 — so McGregor needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Saint-Denis a clear 75% favorite, more confident than the market's 57%. Expect Saint-Denis to chase the takedown (4.7/15 min at 42%) while Pimblett tries to keep it standing behind 44% takedown defense.
The model makes Bautista a solid 61% favorite, more confident than the market's 43%. Striking volume is near even (4.3 vs 5.1 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Kavanagh a narrow 57% favorite, cooler than the market's 66% — the value sits with Royval. Royval throws more (5.8 vs 2.1/min), but the model sees Kavanagh edging rounds on effectiveness — landing at 49% to Royval's 41%.
The model makes Mckinney a solid 67% favorite, more confident than the market's 50%. Expect Mckinney to chase the takedown (3.3/15 min at 43%) while Green tries to keep it standing behind 75% takedown defense.
The model makes Krylov a solid 66% favorite, more confident than the market's 45%. Expect Krylov to chase the takedown (2.8/15 min at 38%) while Whittaker tries to keep it standing behind 77% takedown defense.
The model makes Steveson a clear 75% favorite, cooler than the market's 91% — the value sits with Ellison. Steveson is most dangerous early — 3 of 3 tracked wins ended in the first round.
The model makes Yanez a solid 69% favorite, cooler than the market's 77% — the value sits with Garbrandt. On the feet, Yanez sets the tempo — 6.0 significant strikes a minute to 2.3 — so Garbrandt needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Riley a solid 66% favorite, in line with the betting market. Striking volume is near even (1.1 vs 0.6 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Cong a narrow 57% favorite, more confident than the market's 52%. Expect Cortez to chase the takedown (1.8/15 min at 47%) while Cong tries to keep it standing behind 80% takedown defense.
The model makes Pinas a clear 74% favorite, more confident than the market's 70%. Almeida will out-work him on volume (3.2 vs 0.9/min) — Pinas's route is a finish, not a points battle.
The model makes Basharat a solid 60% favorite, cooler than the market's 84% — the value sits with Garza. Expect Basharat to chase the takedown (2.3/15 min at 45%) while Garza tries to keep it standing.
The model makes Costa a solid 64% favorite, in line with the betting market. Expect Durden to chase the takedown (3.9/15 min at 54%) while Costa tries to keep it standing behind 86% takedown defense.
The model makes Plessis a solid 61% favorite, cooler than the market's 70% — the value sits with Usman. Striking volume is near even (5.0 vs 4.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Duncan a clear 76% favorite, in line with the betting market. Striking volume is near even (4.7 vs 3.8 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Hooper a clear 81% favorite, more confident than the market's 72%. Expect Hooper to chase the takedown (3.2/15 min at 35%) while Ramirez tries to keep it standing behind 25% takedown defense.
The model makes Kline a narrow 58% favorite, cooler than the market's 76% — the value sits with Ricci. Expect Ricci to chase the takedown (2.5/15 min at 38%) while Kline tries to keep it standing behind 33% takedown defense.
The model makes McMillen a clear 75% favorite, more confident than the market's 49%. On the feet, McMillen sets the tempo — 6.0 significant strikes a minute to 0.9 — so Montes needs moments, not volume.
The model makes Rodrigues a narrow 51% favorite, cooler than the market's 63% — the value sits with Franco. Expect Franco to chase the takedown (1.7/15 min at 38%) while Rodrigues tries to keep it standing behind 100% takedown defense.
The model makes Coria a clear 71% favorite, cooler than the market's 88% — the value sits with Nicoll. Striking volume is near even (1.0 vs 1.1 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
The model makes Ankalaev a solid 60% favorite, cooler than the market's 73% — the value sits with Rountree. Striking volume is near even (3.7 vs 4.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output.
Books don't quote UFC fighter props (strikes, takedowns) yet — this board prices fight winners and round totals against the Probetrics fight model (backtested on 1,523 fights: 61% winner accuracy on held-out data). Model/Edge columns appear once both fighters' data is built. Tap a fighter for the full breakdown.
