Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria

6:00 PM ET· scheduled
Save imageSquare
Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Alden Coriaby DEC
51% to win · 30% that it’s by DEC · 54% this goes the distance
Model fair price -103
Probetrics fight model
Alden Coria
51% -103
Imanol Rodriguez
49% +103
How it ends
Coria by KO/TKO
15.1%
fair +560
Coria by SUB
5.9%
fair +1588
Coria by DEC
29.5%
fair +238
Rodriguez by KO/TKO
16.1%
fair +522
Rodriguez by SUB
9.2%
fair +983
Rodriguez by DEC
24.1%
fair +315

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R125.0%fair +299
Ends in R213.8%fair +626
Ends in R37.6%fair +1220
Goes distance53.6%fair -116
How this fight plays out

The model makes Coria a narrow 51% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.1 vs 4.8 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Rodriguez is most dangerous early — 4 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Coria's most likely path is on the scorecards (30%), and the fight goes the distance 54% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.